Sometimes We Let Life Guide Us, And Other Times We Take Life By The Horns. But One Thing Is For Sure: No Matter How Organized We Are, Or How Well We Plan, We Can Always Expect The Unexpected.
I have just come across the Black Swan Theory. My immediate reaction was,
Are There Black Swans? Thought Swans Are Always White?
The Black Swan theory or theory of Black Swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
The hindsight, after some evaluation usually elicits the comment, “It Was Bound To Happen”.
This theory describes an occurrence that is unprecedented at that point in human history, deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is very difficult to predict. Something of a “Force Majeure”.
This is a term made popular by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor, writer, and former Wall Street trader after the 2008 housing financial crisis in the US, with a an admonition from him that for people to always assume a Black Swan (formally assumed nonexistent) event is a possibility – and therefore plan accordingly for it.
Examples of Black Swan events are the Dotcom Bubble of 2001. Or, the 2008, Zimbabwean hyperinflation of more than 79.6 billion percent (the worst ever seen anywhere). This was practically almost impossible to predict.
If we have gone through a Black Swan situation or event, this may have taught us to always :
– Expect The Unexpected
– Always Have A Plan B (And Possibly C)
– Never Test Unknown Rivers With Both Legs,
– Never Ever Put Too Many Eggs In A Single Basket, No Matter How Strong The Basket Appears To Be.
Anticipating as many scenarios as possible is the solution to avoiding disappointments. To always expect the unexpected means you must always realize that we do not know what is around the corner, at all points in time .
No matter what ball life throws, let us always remember that, when one door closes (the unexpected happens), other doors almost always open.
Never give your swansong until all black swans are exterminated.